Last month there was a guest editor from Colorado who voiced an opinion about some climate change report that was leaked and published by the New York Times. The report was the NCE4 Draft Report that has been in the public domain since January 2017. This report was a continuation of the NCE3 report published back in 2014. The Daily Sentinel (newspaper) in Colorado decided to make some kind of conspiracy out of it and the Daily Record decided to share that misinformation with us here in Roswell.
This letter is a counter point to those two newspapers. The report in question is the NCE4 report that is based on prior NCE reports as well as the IPCC reports from previous years. Here is the difference between the two types of reports. The NCE is a social science statement based on the IPCC report that contain physical science data. The IPCC report are very complex because they cover way to much detail information across the board and are hard to understand unless you also study physics, chemistry, biology, geology and other physical sciences. So the Government decided to summaries that math data into words for understanding. It reminded me of ‘New Math’ back in the 1960’s.
For example, there is real data that supports an average temperature rise of 1.2 degrees since 1980. The report will state that as a ‘certainty’ and I have to agree based on all the background that I have studied. However, the actual cause of that is an ‘uncertainty’ because there are so many outliers involved in the complex climate system. For example: natural fluctuations in radiative forcing (volcanos, earthquakes), ocean oscillation, jet stream, compound weather events, even governance policies, and other natural variabilities.
These variables makes observation very difficult and predictions impossible. Yet, for some reason, these reports are taken for gospel which is a huge mistake. Speaking of huge, President Trump’s decision to leave the Paris Accord was correct because the Accord is also a social science statement based on the best interpretation of the physical data by many who are not physical scientist. A self-educated commoner like myself probably has a better grasp of what is happening on the weather front than most in world Governments.
Climate Change is complex and a given certainty, but there is also an uncertainty of the cause at the same time.