Predictions versus Observations

I need to start off by defining predictions: to foretell the future or prophecy. What human being on earth has the ability to do that accurately? The other word to define is observation: to physically experience an event with one of your senses. Even then, it is an interpretation of the physical data and your personal conscience.

Sixty years ago the prediction of ‘doom and gloom’ was certain that the world was going to nuke itself and create a nuclear winter (the next ice age). With intense misinformation many people actually believed and prepared for it. After sixty years and over 400+ nuclear reactors around the world the observation is 100% the opposite. Nuclear reactors have been used to power our Navy and kept us safe from our adversaries. Nuclear reactors have provided 60% of our clean electricity and made America the dream location for the rest of the world to migrate to. Well, it looks like we all survived that prediction.

Ten years ago, Al Gore hosted his video “An Inconvenient Truth” based on the 1990 IPCC assessment report of simulation models that predicted global warming would be the next ‘doom and gloom’. Here it is 2017 and the observation for the last 115 years is that the average temperature has raised about 1.8 degrees (NCE4 Report). However, IPCC modeling predictions have been wrong even though climate change is real. Now Al Gore is hosting a sequel to the first video and trying to justify his wrong predictions with another set of predictions. So far, no catastrophe here either.

Another example is the 2014 ‘nuclear’ accident at WIPP. The trucks never stopped hauling the waste material from across the country. An alternate site called Waste Control Specialists (WCS), located in West Texas, was used to queue the safe canisters for final delivery to WIPP. The anti-nuclear folks predicted awful things would happen after this accident too. Observation: Nothing happened.

Based on observation, and not predictions, I would say that the benefit of storing nuclear ‘waste’ is worth the low level risk. I support the Eddy-Lea Energy Alliance in their quest to obtain a license to store spent nuclear fuel in their counties. Everyone in New Mexico benefits from the potential revenue this will generate.

Here’s my prediction for the solar eclipse that will occur on August 21st. Someone’s solar panels will stop producing electricity and their lights will go dark.


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